Molehill On The Mona Lisa

The Earth's climate doesn't run on 40 year cycles. Such cycles run like a layer on top of other massively powerful and lengthy solar-driven cycles. Sometimes the brief cycles merge with the long cycles, sometimes there is a slight divergence. But the short man-made cycles can never overpower the long solar cycles and re-direct them. In the long view, Earth's climate history is a long series of huge mountains and deep valleys spanning millions of years. This cycle will continue. You're looking at a molehill on the side of Mt. Everest.

The panic over this 40-year molehill requires one to develop extreme tunnel vision concentrated exclusively on a tiny sliver of time. Picture time as a huge canvas. If you poke a pin hole in the Mona Lisa and then look only at the pin hole through a magnifying glass, of course it's going to look like extreme damage. But if you look at the Mona Lisa from across the room, you won't even see the pin hole.

Anyone can make a scary hockey stick. All you have to do is look at only a tiny slice of time, and then make your whole graph cover a degree or two of celsius from top to bottom. Instant hockey stick.